Busan's Demographic Decline: A Looming Crisis

Busan, the second largest city in South Korea, is currently facing a critical situation due to several factors, including a persistent outflow of residents, a low birth rate, and an aging population. The current total fertility rate in Busan is 0.8, resulting in a population decline that is cause for concern. The Busan region is particularly vulnerable to this demographic trend, and its future is uncertain. In light of this, the city has acquired a new nickname: "The Old Man and the Sea." This name succinctly captures the gravity of the situation and the growing concerns about the city's ability to survive amidst the ongoing decline in birth rates and an aging populace.

Birthrate and population decline in Busan

The latest birth statistics released by Statistics Korea show that the number of babies born in Busan in 2020 was 15,058, which is almost 2,000 fewer than in 2019 when the number of births was 17,049. Over the past ten years, the number of births has decreased by half, from 27,759 in 2011 to 15,058 in 2020. Additionally, the total fertility rate in Busan was 0.75 in 2020, a slight decrease from the previous year's rate of 0.85 and a significant drop from the rate of 1.08 recorded a decade ago.

The situation is particularly concerning in the original downtown area of Busan. Jung-gu, the district with the fewest births, recorded only 94 newborns in 2020, a number in the double digits. The fertility rate in Jung-gu is only 0.44, which is half the national average, indicating a significant challenge to increasing the city's population. The neighboring district of Yeongdo-gu has a slightly higher fertility rate of 0.58. The four original downtown areas in Busan, including Jung-gu, Yeongdo-gu, Dong-gu, and Seo-gu districts, are all facing a startling population decline and are considered endangered areas.

In contrast, the district of Gangseo-gu had the highest total fertility rate in Busan at 1.26, which is 0.4, higher than the national average. Similarly, Gijang-gun recorded a fertility rate of 1.06. Unlike the downtown areas, which are already densely populated, the two districts, located at the east and west ends of Busan, have numerous development projects in progress, which have attracted a significant influx of young people and resulted in a higher birth rate, according to analysts.

The decline in Schools due to Low Birthrate and Aging Population

The number of marriages in Busan, closely linked to the fertility rate, is also rapidly declining. In 2020, only 12,128 married couples in Busan, a 30% decrease of 4,985 compared to 17,113 those five years ago. This reality underscores the growing trend of the city's populace not marrying or having children.

Busan's declining birthrate and the aging population are contributing to a reduction in the number of schools in the city. The Busan Office of Education reports that since 2012, 22 elementary, middle, and high schools have been merged, and the number of school closures has been rising. In 2018 and 2019, four schools shut down in a single year, and in 2020, a shocking six schools closed.

The decrease in the number of schools in Busan is due to the long-standing decline in the birthrate and the subsequent reduction in the school-age population, which includes individuals between 6 to 21 years of age who are eligible to attend elementary, secondary, and university. This decline in the school-age population is a national issue.

According to data from Statistics Korea, the school-age population in Korea decreased by over 1 million over the past decade, from 8.89 million to 7.88 million in 2020. The decline will deteriorate in the future, with projections indicating a drop to 7 million by 2030 and just 3.2 million by 2070 - less than half the current number. In Busan, the school-age population decreased from over 413,000 in 2012 to 302,000 in 2020. High school students in Busan also declined by almost half, from 126,000 to 73,000 over the same period. This trend highlights the severity of the declining birth rate and its impact on the city's population.

Looking Forward

The situation in Busan is dire, but there are still some districts that offer hope. For instance, Gangseo-gu and Gijang-gun have recorded higher fertility rates than the national average due to ongoing development projects, which have led to a high influx of young people and a high birth rate.

The Busan Metropolitan City has introduced policies to address the declining birth rate and promote family-friendly living environments. The government has launched a campaign to promote the city as a place to live, work, and raise children. The campaign includes measures to support couples in having children, such as providing financial support for fertility treatment, increasing the number of childcare facilities, and improving maternity and paternity leave benefits.

Moreover, the government has also introduced policies to address the aging population, such as increasing the number of senior care facilities and providing more support for caregivers. The city has established a senior-friendly environment by building pedestrian walkways, installing benches, and increasing accessibility for the elderly. The government has also set up centers for senior citizens, providing them with health and welfare services.

However, experts suggest that more fundamental solutions are necessary to combat the issue. They recommend creating more job opportunities for young people and providing affordable housing to encourage them to stay in the city and start families. In addition, promoting a more family-friendly work culture and offering better support for working mothers could also help boost the birth rate.

To conclude, the decreasing birth rate and aging population present a significant threat to cities like Busan. The outflow of young people will continue, leading to a further decline in the population. The government and society must take decisive actions to reverse this trend and build a more sustainable future for Busan, including prioritizing policies to encourage young people to stay and raise families.