Ulsan is facing a severe population crisis, with projections showing a decline from 1.09 million in 2025 to 844,000 by 2050. As the city’s workforce shrinks and aging accelerates, concerns grow over economic stagnation, labor shortages, and reduced public services.
Ulsan, South Korea - For decades, Ulsan has been the beating heart of South Korea’s industrial revolution, home to the country’s largest shipbuilding, petrochemical, and automotive companies. It was a city built on the backs of factory workers, engineers, and industrial innovators—people who turned it into the nation’s wealthiest metropolitan area by GDP per capita. But today, Ulsan faces a growing crisis that threatens its future: an irreversible population decline.
Projections indicate that Ulsan’s population, currently at 1.09 million, will shrink to just 844,000 by 2050, a staggering 35% drop from its peak of 1.17 million in 2015. While this would not strip Ulsan of its metropolitan city status, the economic and social implications could be devastating. With fewer residents paying taxes, a shrinking workforce, and an aging population, the city could struggle to maintain its industrial dominance.
What is driving people away from Ulsan? And more importantly, can the city find a way to reverse the trend before it is too late?
The decline in Ulsan’s population is neither sudden nor unexpected. Experts have been warning of a demographic shift for years, pointing to several key factors that are accelerating the city’s shrinkage.
One of the most significant drivers is the aging workforce. Ulsan's success was largely built on the baby boomer generation (born 1955–1963), who found stable employment in the city’s industrial sector. But those same workers are now retiring in large numbers, leaving behind a job market that struggles to attract younger generations. The shift is stark: in 2020, the elderly dependency ratio—the number of seniors per 100 working-age residents—stood at just 16.3%, below the national average of 21.8%. By 2050, that number is expected to skyrocket to 84.8%, turning Ulsan into one of the most rapidly aging cities in South Korea.
Meanwhile, younger generations are not replacing the retiring workforce fast enough. Low birth rates, a nationwide problem, are particularly severe in Ulsan, where industrial labor and work-life balance challenges make it difficult for families to thrive. Many young people leave the city to pursue higher education or better career prospects elsewhere, particularly in Seoul, and never return.
Adding to the crisis is Ulsan’s economic dependency on traditional industries, which, while still strong, have struggled to modernize at the pace of high-tech sectors in other regions. Unlike Seoul’s growing tech and finance hub or Busan’s expanding cultural and logistics sectors, Ulsan’s economy remains largely tied to heavy manufacturing, making it less attractive to professionals in emerging industries.
A declining population is more than just a demographic statistic—it is a direct threat to Ulsan’s economy and way of life.
The most immediate consequence is a shrinking labor force. With fewer workers available, local industries could face hiring shortages, potentially pushing businesses to relocate or automate jobs, further reducing employment opportunities. This cycle of declining jobs and outward migration is one of the biggest risks Ulsan faces.
Another pressing issue is the strain on public services. With fewer taxpayers contributing to city budgets, Ulsan could see budget cuts in education, infrastructure, and welfare programs. Healthcare services will need to adapt as demand shifts from pediatric care and maternity services toward elderly healthcare, assisted living facilities, and geriatric care.
Real estate markets are also expected to be impacted. With a declining population, housing demand will drop, leading to lower property values and an increase in vacant homes. Urban planners are already grappling with questions about how to repurpose declining neighborhoods and revitalize areas that could become deserted.
Recognizing the severity of the crisis, Ulsan is taking steps to slow the decline and attract new residents. The city’s strategy revolves around economic diversification, job creation, and enhanced quality of life initiatives.
One of the most ambitious plans is the “Mega-City” initiative, a proposed partnership between Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (Bu-Ul-Gyeong) aimed at creating a single economic hub. The idea is that by improving transportation links, job markets, and infrastructure connectivity, the region can compete more effectively with Seoul and retain its skilled workforce.
At the same time, Ulsan is restructuring its industries to be less reliant on shipbuilding and petrochemicals, instead focusing on renewable energy, AI-driven automation, and high-tech manufacturing. The city has established a Special Industrial Task Force (TF) to attract investments from global tech firms and support local startups.
To keep young families in the city, Ulsan has expanded housing benefits and childcare support. New policies include financial incentives for university students and young professionals moving to Ulsan, as well as subsidized daycare and education programs.
However, experts warn that these policies alone may not be enough. Some suggest that Ulsan should look beyond South Korea’s domestic population and explore targeted immigration programs, inviting skilled workers and families from overseas to counteract the workforce decline. Others believe that regional branding and tourism development could help position Ulsan as more than just an industrial city, making it more attractive to people seeking cultural and lifestyle opportunities.
Ulsan is not alone in facing a population crisis—other metropolitan cities in South Korea, including Busan, Daegu, and Daejeon, are also experiencing rapid population decline and aging demographics. These cities, once economic and cultural hubs, are now struggling with youth outmigration, shrinking workforces, and declining birth rates. Without effective strategies for revitalization, they risk facing economic stagnation, reduced administrative influence, and a diminishing quality of life for their residents. Ulsan’s response to this crisis could serve as a model—or a warning—for other cities on the brink of similar challenges.
The coming decades will be critical. If Ulsan successfully modernizes its economy, improves its quality of life, and retains its young workforce, it could maintain its status as one of Korea’s most important cities. If not, the city risks fading into economic stagnation, struggling to sustain its industries and infrastructure with a dwindling and aging population.
Will Ulsan adapt in time to secure its future, or will it become a cautionary tale for other industrial cities facing similar demographic shifts?
