In many countries, the media frequently portrays stable and declining populations due to demographic aging as a problem or crisis.
Smaller populations make for more sustainable societies.
Some environmental scientists argue that societies should embrace population aging and decrease, citing numerous reports on the socioeconomic and environmental benefits of population aging, mortality-related decrease, and shrinking workforces due to retirement, and arguing that, contrary to some economic analyses, costs associated with aging societies are manageable, while smaller populations make for more sustainable societies.
South Korea’s declining fertility rate fell to a new low in 2021
The negative economic consequences of South Korea’s impending demographic crisis have sparked widespread concern. Aside from labor shortages and general economic stagnation, the country’s low fertility rate is poised to burden a shrinking generation of young people with the burden of caring for an ever-growing elderly population, roughly half of whom are poor. The effects of the demographic crisis on South Korea’s democratic trajectory are a less obvious but equally important potential consequence of the demographic crisis.
With the introduction of Western medical and health systems in the early twentieth century, Korea’s demographic transition began. Koreans’ life expectancy increased from 37 years in 1925-30 to 52 years in 1955-60, as mortality rates fell. Population growth rates have accelerated, putting additional strain on land resources.
The population stabilization process began in the early 1960s. In response to high population growth and extreme poverty, the government became more involved in family planning. Fertility began to fall sharply in the mid 1960s, reaching the bare population replacement level in the mid 1980s. Fertility transition had occurred at a rate unprecedented in human history, taking only 20 years to complete. Fertility has continued to fall, to the point where fertility levels in 2000 should result in a 30% population reduction in 30 years.
Mortality has declined steadily since the fertility transition. In 1960, life expectancy at birth was estimated to be 52.4 years, but it increased to 75.5 years in 1999. These demographic trends had a direct impact on population aging. The proportion of the population aged 65 and up was 2.9% in 1960, 5.1% in 1990, and 7.2% in 2000. The decline in fertility also resulted in significant reductions in family size. Between 1960 and 1995, the average household size shrank from 5.5 to 3.3 people.
South Korea’s fertility rate had fallen to 0.92 in 2019. Since then, the most recent figure in 2021, which represents the number of children a woman is likely to have in her lifetime, has dropped to 0.81, the world’s lowest.
The global slowdown in population growth rates benefits.
The world’s population growth rate peaked in the 1960s and is now declining in most regions, with the exception of Sub-Saharan Africa, which is the last major region to transition from high rates of mortality and fertility to relatively low rates. Whereas the population of the United States nearly quadrupled during the twentieth century, it is expected to increase by roughly half in the twenty-first.
The global slowdown in population growth rates indicates significant long-term successes. It has a positive impact on climate change and the environment. In an increasingly urbanized world, couples are having fewer children while men and women pursue education, employment, and careers and live longer than ever before.
Some fear the societal challenges that come with population aging in countries with aging and declining populations, but these fears are exaggerated. While healthcare spending in aging populations increases, which is manageable within society, population aging does not always result in worker shortages.
Is South Korea’s population declining as the birth rate falls, posing a threat to the economy?
We have been told by media professionals and politicians that low birth rates and aging populations spell disaster for rich countries such as Korea and Japan, burdening children with financial obligations to their elders, tearing social safety nets, and pushing economies into recession.
It is possible that aging slows an economy. However, some economists argue that this is not always the case. With fewer workers, businesses may invest more in machines and other means of increasing productivity and prosperity.
Rapidly aging and shrinking populations will have multiple positive and negative consequences for sustainability, including economic growth, public sector development, consumption patterns, land use change, and greenhouse gas emissions, among other things. (Götmark, F., Cafaro, P. & O’Sullivan, J. Aging human populations: good for us, good for the earth. Trends Ecol. Evol. 33, 851–862 (2018))
Ageing and shrinking urban populations will present significant challenges, but also opportunities for implementing the SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals). Many studies have claimed that population aging and shrinking will benefit biodiversity conservation and ecosystem functioning. Reduced environmental pressures result from lower total consumption, which is important because human population growth and consumption are both major drivers of global environmental change.
The predicted population decline in Korea will reduce land pressure, opening the door to rewilding land that is no longer required for agriculture, forestry, or other intensive human uses. A shrinking population will necessitate less food consumption, relieving pressure on the food system and improving food security. However, lower incomes for the elderly may prevent all elderly people from having adequate food access. Furthermore, an aging and shrinking population may have a negative impact on agricultural production due to a shrinking agricultural workforce. However, such effects may be partially or completely offset by automation.
Population declines in Korea would relieve pressure on housing markets and make it easier to find affordable housing in cities. However, because many existing homes are unsuitable for the diverse needs of older people, many homes will need to be adapted in order for older people to continue to live in them (access to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services and upgraded slums). An aging population will almost certainly increase policy demand for designing accessible and safe public spaces.
Similarly, ageing and shrinking populations would make a strong case for reconfiguration and increased investments in public transportation, but would also increase the risk of declining revenues and reduced public transportation service provision in areas where elderly fares are subsidized.
An aging and shrinking population will make it difficult to achieve Decent Work and Economic Growth since the main mechanism is the decline in the number of young workers and taxpayers. However, increased innovation and automation in all sectors of society can boost productivity (for example, robots replacing workers in manufacturing, health and elder care facilities).
As previously stated, population ageing and shrinking present both challenges and opportunities; however, if South Korea capitalizes on opportunities and reduces challenges through government interventions or strengthening existing processes, South Korea can achieve SDGs despite the potential effects of population ageing and shrinking.
Final thoughts
The long-term sustainability of South Korea’s ageing and shrinking urban population will be identified, as will some of the possible emerging interventions to capitalize on the opportunities. Combining context-specific policy and practice interventions will be required to both leverage opportunities and reduce the challenges posed by population aging and shrinking for sustainability.
Notwithstanding, the benefits of aging and population decline for sustainability have received little attention in policy and practice thus far. Ageing and shrinking populations are frequently perceived as difficult obstacles to meeting sustainability goals, rather than as opportunities. However, it is highly likely that rapidly aging and shrinking populations will have multiple positive consequences for economic sustainability at the same time.
