Imagine a future where kimchi, South Korea’s beloved staple, becomes a rare delicacy due to the scarcity of its essential ingredient—napa cabbage. As the global climate crisis deepens, this scenario is no longer a far-off possibility but a pressing concern for Korea’s agricultural industry. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and frequent extreme weather events are disrupting the nation’s food production, pushing key crops to the brink of collapse and causing food prices to soar.
Over the last century, South Korea has experienced a rapid warming trend, with average temperatures rising at three times the global rate. This alarming change is making it increasingly difficult for farmers to grow staples like napa cabbage, apples, and garlic—crops that form the backbone of Korean cuisine. As the country contends with hotter summers and unpredictable rainfall, crop yields are plummeting, leading to supply shortages and higher prices across the board.
The Growing Impact of Rising Temperatures on Crop Yields
Over the past 30 years, open-field apple cultivation areas have decreased by more than 30%, and production is projected to fall further in the coming decades.
As South Korea’s climate warms at an alarming rate, the agricultural industry is feeling the strain. Over the past century, the country’s average temperature has increased by 0.2°C per decade—three times the global average. This seemingly small rise is having a profound impact on the country’s crops, many of which are highly sensitive to temperature fluctuations. The effects are most noticeable in key staples like apples, pears, and napa cabbage, which thrive in cooler climates.
Korea’s agriculture has long depended on a predictable climate, but with temperatures steadily rising, this predictability is fading. Apples, for instance, require cool summers to develop properly, but rising heat levels are reducing yields in prime growing regions like North Gyeongsang Province. Over the past 30 years, open-field apple cultivation areas have decreased by more than 30%, and production is projected to fall further in the coming decades. As temperatures continue to rise, crops that were once resilient in Korea’s temperate zones are now facing stress, leading to smaller harvests and lower-quality produce.
The impact on napa cabbage, the essential ingredient for kimchi, has been particularly severe. This crop is highly temperature-sensitive, thriving best in a range between 18°C and 21°C. However, during the key summer growing season, temperatures are now frequently exceeding this range. As a result, napa cabbage crops are wilting, becoming more susceptible to fungal infections, and rotting before they can be harvested. In some cases, farmers are reporting that cabbage heads fail to form properly or that the roots become mushy, rendering the crops unusable.
This has led to a sharp decline in domestic cabbage production, raising concerns that, in the near future, South Korea may no longer be able to produce enough napa cabbage to meet the demand for kimchi. Given kimchi’s cultural and culinary significance in Korea, this possibility has alarmed farmers, food producers, and consumers alike. For many, the idea of a future where kimchi is no longer a readily available staple is unthinkable, yet it is becoming an increasingly real threat as climate change intensifies.
Extreme Weather and Its Impact on Agriculture
Beyond rising temperatures, Korea’s agriculture is being increasingly disrupted by erratic rainfall patterns and severe weather events. These shifts, largely driven by climate change, are putting unprecedented stress on both crop production and farming infrastructure. The country is now experiencing both longer periods of drought and more frequent heavy rainfall, creating a difficult environment for farmers who rely on predictable weather cycles to plan their planting and harvesting seasons.
One of the most severe consequences of climate change in Korea is the unpredictable rainfall that has begun to plague its growing seasons. Heavy downpours, concentrated over short periods, lead to flooding that devastates crops. For example, in southern agricultural regions, key crops such as garlic and potatoes have suffered from waterlogging and root rot during these intense rainstorms. The effects are particularly harsh for napa cabbage, where excess water can cause heads to rot or become infected with diseases, dramatically reducing yields.
In addition to damaging crops, these floods also lead to soil erosion, washing away the fertile topsoil that is essential for agriculture. This erosion not only impacts current crop cycles but also degrades the long-term viability of the land, making it harder for farmers to produce the same quality and quantity of crops in the future.
Conversely, Korea has also been experiencing extended periods of drought, which severely limit the water supply necessary for crops like garlic, onions, and potatoes. These crops, vital to the country’s food security, require consistent moisture throughout their growing periods. Droughts have reduced yields, forcing farmers to rely more heavily on irrigation, which is costly and unsustainable in the long term. This growing reliance on irrigation can lead to competition for water resources, exacerbating tensions between agricultural and other sectors like urban areas that also depend on these limited water supplies.
Droughts not only reduce the immediate output of crops but also create long-term challenges for the health of the soil. Without sufficient rainfall, soil quality deteriorates, becoming more prone to compaction and nutrient depletion. This compounds the problem, making it harder for crops to thrive in subsequent growing seasons and pushing farmers to invest in expensive fertilizers and other inputs just to maintain their yields.
The Economic Fallout: Rising Prices and Food Security
In 2024, apple prices surged by over 88%, while pears and tangerines saw similarly steep price hikes. This sharp rise in the cost of produce is directly linked to the extreme weather conditions that have made it more difficult for farmers to grow these crops.
As climate change continues to disrupt South Korea’s agricultural sector, the economic consequences are becoming more severe. The combination of reduced crop yields, unpredictable weather, and increased reliance on imports has led to a significant rise in the cost of fruits and vegetables. These changes are not only affecting farmers’ livelihoods but also placing a heavy burden on consumers, who are experiencing food price inflation at unprecedented levels.
One of the most immediate and visible impacts of climate change on South Korea’s food supply is the dramatic increase in prices for basic fruits and vegetables. In 2024, apple prices surged by over 88%, while pears and tangerines saw similarly steep price hikes. This sharp rise in the cost of produce is directly linked to the extreme weather conditions that have made it more difficult for farmers to grow these crops. Heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and droughts are all contributing to smaller harvests, which in turn drive up prices due to limited supply.
This price volatility is particularly concerning because it reflects a broader trend of instability in South Korea’s agricultural market. The unpredictability of crop yields makes it difficult for farmers to plan their production, and for consumers, it means that the cost of food can fluctuate dramatically from year to year. As a result, both farmers and consumers are facing increased uncertainty about their economic future.
The growing dependency on imported food also raises questions about food security.
In response to declining domestic production, South Korea has become increasingly reliant on imported fruits and vegetables to meet its food demand. Garlic, a staple ingredient in Korean cuisine, is now predominantly imported from China due to the challenges of growing it domestically under changing climate conditions. The reliance on imports has surged in recent years, with import volumes increasing by over 600% in the last two decades. While imports can help stabilize supply in the short term, they also expose the country to global market fluctuations and raise concerns about the long-term sustainability of its food system.
The growing dependency on imported food also raises questions about food security. As international supply chains become more vulnerable to climate impacts—such as droughts in garlic-growing regions of China—South Korea may face further price increases or supply shortages. This dependence on external sources places the country at risk of global market disruptions, which could lead to even greater price spikes in the future.
Shifting Agricultural Practices: Subtropical Crops and Adaptation
As traditional crops struggle in the face of rising temperatures and erratic weather, South Korea’s agricultural sector is beginning to adapt by exploring new strategies to sustain food production. This shift includes experimenting with subtropical crops that thrive in warmer climates and leveraging advanced agricultural technologies to mitigate the effects of climate change. However, while these adaptations show promise, they also come with their own set of challenges.
With increasing temperatures pushing Korea’s climate closer to subtropical conditions, crops like mangoes, bananas, and avocados—once unthinkable for the region—are slowly gaining ground. Between 2019 and 2022, the area used for subtropical crop cultivation grew by nearly 10%, reflecting a broader shift in the types of produce being farmed. While this growth provides a potential solution to the decline in traditional crops like apples and cabbage, subtropical farming remains a small part of the agricultural landscape, accounting for only a fraction of total crop production.
While the expansion of subtropical crops offers some economic opportunities, it also presents practical challenges. These crops often require different infrastructure, such as specialized greenhouses or irrigation systems, which can be costly for small-scale farmers. Additionally, the market demand for subtropical fruits is still relatively niche compared to traditional staples, meaning that farmers may face difficulties in finding reliable markets for their new crops.
To combat the growing impact of climate change, South Korea is investing in smart farming technologies that help farmers manage resources more efficiently and mitigate the risks posed by extreme weather. Smart farming relies on tools such as automated irrigation systems, drones, and data-driven monitoring of soil and weather conditions to optimize crop growth and reduce waste. These innovations can help farmers adjust to shifting environmental conditions and reduce their dependency on unpredictable weather patterns.
Additionally, researchers are working on developing heat-resistant crop varieties that can better withstand the higher temperatures expected in the coming decades. For example, scientists are experimenting with new strains of napa cabbage and apples that can tolerate warmer growing conditions while maintaining their quality and yield. However, these new crop varieties often come with higher production costs, and there are concerns that they may not match the flavor and texture of traditional varieties, which could limit their acceptance by consumers.
The Road Ahead for Korea’s Agriculture
As climate change continues to reshape South Korea’s agricultural landscape, the nation is at a critical crossroads. The challenges posed by rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and shifting crop patterns are undeniable, but they also present an opportunity for transformation. Addressing these issues requires a multifaceted approach that combines immediate adaptation strategies with long-term solutions to mitigate the root causes of climate change.
At the heart of Korea’s agricultural crisis is the pressing need for greater climate resilience. The government has already begun investing in smart farming technologies and developing heat-resistant crop varieties, but these solutions must be scaled up and supported with strong policy measures. This includes more aggressive carbon reduction strategies to combat the underlying drivers of climate change. South Korea has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, but achieving this goal will require both public and private sectors to work together to reduce emissions and invest in sustainable energy and farming practices.
Moreover, greater investment is needed in research and infrastructure to help farmers adapt to the new climate reality. While technological innovations can offer some relief, they must be made affordable and accessible to all farmers, especially those with limited resources. Additionally, improving water management systems and ensuring that farmers have access to climate-resistant seeds will be crucial in the coming years.
The stakes are high for Korea’s food security. As climate change continues to intensify, the country must balance the need to preserve traditional crops with the growing demand for subtropical produce. While the shift to new crops like mangoes and bananas could provide economic benefits, it is vital that the country remains focused on ensuring that staples like kimchi, garlic, and potatoes remain accessible to all Koreans.
The road ahead will not be easy, but it presents a unique opportunity for South Korea to lead the way in climate-smart agriculture. By embracing innovation, investing in sustainability, and strengthening global partnerships, Korea can not only protect its food supply but also become a model for other nations facing similar climate challenges.
In the end, the fight against climate change in agriculture is not just about adapting to a new reality—it’s about building a more resilient, sustainable future where food security is assured for generations to come.
